Wednesday, 6 June 2007

Exposing the left wing manipulation of ninemsn's online poll

For a couple of months now a strange phenomenon has been occurring on ninemsn's online poll.

Whatever the left wing position is has been getting a huge influx of votes very quickly, which has been seriously distorting the results.

I first noticed this on the question "Do you agree with Anthony Mundine that NSW rugby league is racist?" but didn't follow the numbers closely enough. It seemed that the early no vote had been overwhelmed by yes votes late in the day but I wasn't sure.

When the politically contentious "Is the Australian values quiz a fair test for citizenship?" poll arrived I took a bit more notice. For much of the day the yes vote had a lead. However, in the evening and overnight the poll question was bombarded with no votes leading to a Yes: 38,727 (13%), No: 267,131 (87%) result - a huge distorting of what had been going on for a large part of the day where the no vote was in front.

Today's question is "Do you believe Australia is one of the worst countries for workers?" The poll is based on the attempt by President of the ACTU, Sharan Burrow, to smear Australia by having us included on an International Labour Organisation (ILO) list of 25 countries with the worst labour regimes.

I started taking screen shots of the poll throughout the day, as follows (click on images for larger view):

2.46PM - Yes 7,727; No 19,056 - Y/N ratio 0.405


5.19PM
- Yes 11,088; No 27,131 - Y/N ratio 0.409


6.38PM
- Yes 12,858; No 31,255 - Y/N ratio 0.411


For nearly four hours it is clear that the yes vote is stable at around 40%. The change from 2.46 to 6.38 is: Yes 5,131; No 12,199 - Y/N ratio 0.421, which is consistent with the overall poll result.

However, in the next 2:40hrs things change dramatically, as you can see below:

9.18PM
- Yes 42,892; No 36,470 - Y/N ratio 1.176


In the period between 6.38 and 9.18 the number of votes cast is:
Yes 30,034; No 5,215 - Y/N ratio 5.759.

Clearly, there's some manipulation happening. It's consistent with what I've seen before in that when the expected result (but anti-left wing position) is exposed then someone is giving the poll a push along. I'd imagine it's done via some IP address modifying, automatic voting tool probably and probably originates from a university (though fake IP addresses would mask that).

10.24PM
- Yes 43,856; No 37,849 - Y/N ratio 1.152


11.25PM -
Yes 43,996; No 38,698 - Y/N ratio 1.137


07.12AM - Yes 44,918; No 40,522 - Y/N ratio 1.108


09.02AM
- Yes 46,025; No 43,351 - Y/N ratio 1.062


10.07AM
- Yes 46,944; No 45,736 - Y/N ratio 1.026


11.10AM - Tada! The no vote retakes the lead -
Yes 47,734; No 47,736 - Y/N ratio 0.999


Since the extra votes were stuffed into the poll the change has been:
Yes 4,842; No 11,266 - Y/N ratio 0.429. The ratio is completely in line with what happened before the manipulation.

By my calculation there are around 28,000 fake votes in this poll calculated as 47,734 - (47,736 x 0.42).

One should not be surprised that the political left are so active in undermining true democracy, especially as it's understood by the union movement where coercion and force are the standard methods of achieving the socially negative outcomes they have over the last 50 years.

ninemsn really needs to clean its act up and introduce some anti-poll manipulation methods, which are readily available.

As an aside - I've noticed that over the last few years the results of polls of political issues on ninemsn seem to go pretty much along party lines with a bit of a swing from time to time. It seems to me that the 42% yes vote here probably represents the underlying Labor/Green vote in Australia.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yes, probably the poll is being manipulated. But exactly the same thing happens with Sky News digital polls. In that case, though, the manipulation is done by the right. Routinely, the polls on Sky find disproportionately in favour of the Coalition position, whatever the issue.

I think the takeaway from all this is to ignore informal and totally unscientific opinion 'polls' of this kind that are wide open to abuse by vested interests.

Jack Lacton said...

Anonymous,

That's not quite correct.

Sky News, Fox News etc polls are affected by the readership demographic.

Furthermore, the right is much less organised and motivated on these things because they're much less politically involved so it's quite unlikely for them to systematically fix polls. For the left, the world is about politics (because they want the government to control things).