Saturday, 24 November 2007

Aussie election - FINAL betting market info

Betting is now closed on the Australian federal election and according to all of the markets the opposition Labor Party is headed for victory.

Here's the final graph of the market over the course of the election campaign:



Coalition: $3.58 - Labor $1.31

The final bookies' market making up the composite graph above is:



You can see how the market has gone against the Coalition since their early-campaign mini recovery.

Over the last 7-10 days the seat by seat betting at Portlandbet has moved in Labor's favour with the following being the final prediction:

Coalition: 66
Labor: 82
Independent: 2

Implied uniform swing: Labor: +5.7%
Implied two party preferred vote: Labor 53.0%
As soon as possible after the election I'll post a comparison of the outcome of each seat compared to expectation of the seat by seat market.

(Nothing Follows)

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