Thursday, 26 June 2008

Demographic survey results give Obama the edge

Rasmussen Reports does some fascinating work in the field of political surveys.

Here are the summaries from June's Demographic factors:
June 25, 2008: Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier. Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.
Age will probably not be that much of a factor in this election. There are too many hot issues that will frame the debate.
June 23, 2008: Currently, Obama and McCain are essentially even among men while the Democrat leads by twelve among women. McCain leads 49% to 42% among White Voters but trails 93% to 3% among African-American voters. Among voters who see economic issues as most important this year, Obama leads 59% to 32%. As for those who view national security issues as most important, McCain leads 59% to 37%.
How amazing is that? McCain trails 93%-3% among African-American voters. That really does show how much race is a factor this year. What's equally amazing is that Obama has such a big lead on economic issues given that every policy he's ever supported has pretty much come from Karl Marx's handbook.
June 22, 2008: New data released today shows that 63% of voters think McCain views U.S. society as generally fair and decent. Forty-five percent (45%) believe Obama holds that same view.
Again, if the economy was going very well then this might affect people's vote.
June 19, 2008--McCain leads among voters who earn $40,000 to $75,000 a year. Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and those whose income tops $75,000.
Now, that is amazing. The average American supports McCain. The poor and the well-to-do support Obama. The less well off I can understand but it still amazes me that educated, high earning people do not understand that an Obama presidency would not only reduce their income but reduce the poor's income, as well.
June 15, 2008--Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 50% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 50% of women.

June 14, 2008--Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.
Given those figures you would have to say that Obama is looking good in November. The fact is that the young don't get out to vote so that's no advantage but that will be made up by the lead Obama holds in the 30s age bracket.
June 13, 2008--Obama attracts 84% of political liberals while McCain is supported by 76% of conservatives. While there are more conservatives than liberals in the nation today, Obama also enjoys a twenty-eight point advantage over McCain among moderates.
The moderates will decide the election and if he holds a 28 point lead through to the election then he'll have a clear win.
Fifty percent (50%) of voters say federal spending will increase if Obama is elected and 33% say the same will happen if McCain wins. Forty-five percent (45%) say taxes will increase if there is a President Obama. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say tax hikes will result from a McCain Administration.
It's strange that people reckon taxes and spending will increase under Obama but trust him more on economic issues.
Voters see a clear distinction between the two leading candidates on the issue of Iraq. Eighty-one percent (81%) say Obama is more interested in getting troops home from Iraq than finishing the mission. Seventy-four percent (74%) say that McCain is more interested in finishing the mission An earlier survey found that 52% of voters say getting the troops home is the higher priority.

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view. When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their own, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama.

June 12, 2008--Obama currently leads by eleven points among women but trails by a single point among men (including leaners). Thirty-nine percent (39%) of women say they are certain they will vote for Obama in November. Another 10% say they would vote for him today but could change their mind, and 3% are leaning towards voting for Obama. For McCain those numbers are 30% certain, 8% who could change their mind, and 3% leaning towards voting for him.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of men are certain they will vote for McCain while 34% say the same about Obama.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%. The numbers for McCain are 54% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Among women, Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, McCain by 52%. Among men, McCain earns positive reviews from 56%, Obama from 54%.

Opinions are held more strongly about Obama--33% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable. As with the topline numbers, these ratings reflect a slight softening for Obama and little change for McCain.

June 10, 2008--In December, before the Iowa caucuses launched Obama’s successful campaign for the nomination, the Illinois Senator was seen as politically liberal by 47% of voters nationwide. By April, that number had grown to 54%. Today, 67% see him as politically liberal including 36% who say he is Very Liberal.

A similar pattern is seen for John McCain. The presumptive Republican nominee was seen as politically conservative by 31% of all voters in December, by 41% in April, and by 57% today. Just 19% say he is Very Conservative.

These numbers reflect much more movement than was seen by the more established candidates running four years ago. While the number seeing Obama as liberal has already shifted by twenty percentage points, John Kerry’s numbers shifted just eight points in a roughly comparable time frame. Kerry was seen as politically liberal by 37% in January 2004 and by 45% in May 2004. By the end of Election 2004, 53% saw Kerry as politically liberal.

McCain’s numbers have shifted even more than Obama’s this year—twenty-six percentage points so far. Four years ago, President Bush was seen as politically conservative by 48% in January and 57% in May. That’s a shift of just nine points. By the end of Election 2004, 64% saw Bush as politically conservative.

It’s worth noting that both Bush and Kerry experienced as much of a shift from May to October as they did in the first part of the year. It is certainly reasonable to assume that more changes are ahead for McCain and Obama. Rasmussen Reports will be tracking this data on a weekly basis to monitor ongoing movement.

June 9, 2008--Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans Still, 30% of all voters either have no preference at this time or could change their vote before Election Day.

June 7, 2008--Obama’s bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60’s or low-70’s range.

McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans. Obama’s party now enjoys a ten-percentage point advantage in terms of party identification.

June 5, 2008--As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.

From a partisan perspective, McCain attracts 83% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. McCain has an eight-point advantage over Obama among unaffiliated voters. Keep in mind that many of this year’s unaffiliated voters were Republicans four-years ago. The number identifying with the GOP has declined from just under 37% in 2004 to 31% today. At the same time, many unaffiliated voters from four years ago, now consider themselves to be Democrats.

June 4, 2008--As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.
Yesterday's Gallup Poll shows that Obama and McCain are even at 45% each.

While things are going well in Iraq McCain has a chance in November but he will need the economy to show some improvement from its current lethargic state.

The Republican brand has been hurt on a number of fronts but especially by their own hand in the form of undisciplined spending. McCain has fought hard to maintain his 'maverick' image in order to not be seen as an extension of Bush-Cheney.

The Democrats are referring to a McCain presidency as "George Bush's third term" and the Republicans are saying that Obama represents Jimmy Carter's second term. That won't work, especially as too many voters don't remember what an unmitigated disaster Carter was not only for the United States but also for the rest of the world.

As things stand Obama has a clear edge over McCain.

(Nothing Follows)

4 comments:

rightwingprof said...

Hmmm. I disagree. When the real campaign starts, Obama will have an entirely different audience, and I doubt that he can do so well, particularly if he makes more mistakes like trying to pull the race card. I think the White House is McCain's to lose; let's hope he does not.

Anonymous said...

Not a prayer, Jack. National elections are won at the margins and The Obamessiah has too many large core groups who are no committed to his election: the Hispanics, the Reagan Democrats, the crones and beldams who are the Hillary supporters and there are large numbers of liberal Jews who just won't vote for him either.

America just won't elect a guy as president who is such a hard leftie looselugnut lib.

-- Krumhorn

Anonymous said...

Oh...and there is the inevitable problem that Obama has consistently over-polled. People tell the pollster what they think makes them look good....and then pull the curtain behind them as they vote what they are really thinking.

-- Krumhorn

Jack Lacton said...

Prof,

When the 'real campaign' starts the media will still be in the tank for Obama and not only will no negative messages get through but those things that threaten his getting elected will be white-washed. We saw the same thing in the last Australian election in which the media was extremely lenient on then opposition leader Rudd in spite of huge holes in his campaign promises.

Krum,

If Hispanics are lining up behind Obama, as reported by Rasmussen, then things are bad for McCain.

I agree that America has not elected such a loopy leftist before but if young people and blacks are energised to vote in this election (given they normally stay home) then Obama could have another 10 million votes that other Democratic hopefuls haven't.