Friday, 17 October 2008

Post Debate 3 betting market moves

Apologies for lack of posts. Have been a tad busy but regular postings should resume shortly.

I watched all of the debate today, as well as the post-debate interview by Katie Couric of undecided voters.

I thought that McCain turned in his strongest performance and that Obama, on many counts, lied through his teeth when giving answers that are clearly anathema to his being and 180 degrees from his voting record.

Nobody will care about any of that, though.

Obama did not hurt himself and McCain landed no serious blows.

Here's the Betfair graph before the debate:

Obama $1.17
McCain $6.60



And here it is a few hours later:



Obama $1.15
McCain $7.80

If you think that John McCain can win the election then there certainly are juicy odds on offer.

I've also updated my prediction for the Electoral College tally based on the swing that I think Obama will achieve.



I have no doubt that we're going to have an Obama presidency.

My real concern is that the English Speaking World is led by Obama, Brown and Rudd (with apologies to Mr Harper but Canada simply gets overshadowed by the US).

(Nothing Follows)

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jack, buddy. Back away from the kool-aid vat. I'm beggin' ya'.

This race is far, far closer than you think. Just today, the Gallup traditional likely voter split was only 2% points. They have tried some gimmicky expanded likely voter survey that purports to add in all those new young voters they think Lord Obama is bring into the polls which shows a much wider split.

Rasmussen has it at 4%.

We go through this every election cycle ....and they just don't show up. Listening to these clowns the last time, you would have thought that there would be a virtual tsunami of young voters when Kerry ran. Didn't happen.

Also, if you look back historically at the accuracy of the polling, it is ALWAYS wrong in favor of the Democrats showing the Democrat many points higher than the actual vote count turns out to be.

Ann Coulter has a very interesting column
on that point today.

And then we have discussed here the Wilder effect. The Dear Leader will need to have a good solid 8% point lead to have a chance.

Also lost in the noise is the degree to which Sarah Palin is attracting voters whom the pollsters aren't counting on. You betcha.

Here's a great video that tells that story.

Sarah is a force. She's drawing huge energetic crowds...far out-drawing any of the others.

The Messiah has not closed the deal yet. There are an unusually large number of uncommitted for being only 3 weeks away. McCain is a far better closer than anyone ever gives him credit. By contrast, when the Dear Leader was a shoo-in for the nomination, he lost big state after big state to the Hildebeast.

I know you regard this as blinkered hope triumphing over the plain facts, but this election is far from over.

--Krumhorn

lucas said...

I would not be too excited by the media polls that show obama to be a sure winner. As Rudi Guliano says, Republicans win elections, they never win polls.

I do remember reading an article about CNN polls some time ago. The story line was that CNN outsourced its polls to a company run by a close clinton associate. Much of the interpreted results from these polls were distorted for political purposes.

In any crowd, most people are more comfortable being closer,in the opinions they express to others, to what seems to be near the center of the crowd.
Manipulated polls create a false center that those presenting the poll hope to draw people towards.

The science and practice of voter manipulation and, to an extent election rigging, is very well developed.

The obama campaign seems to be taking a multi-prong approach, that of media manipulation coupled with open voter fraud/election rigging, and the employment of local enforcement squads to intimidate opponents on the vote day.

In recent US history that degree of organization to steal an election is quite unique, but is normal practice in many of the farcical democracies in the third/semi-developed world today.

The media is largely dominated by obama supporters, some published estimates I saw put it at some 90% or so.


What is more worrying is that these fraudulent polls and blatant media bias might be used to whip up, justify and maintain post-election violence by obama goon squads across the US in the still possible and even likely event of an obama loss...

Not too different to the very successful post-election violence after the Kenyan election, and obama was an important advisor and advocate of odinga who planned and implimented this violence.