In the UK the critical factors are a failing economy with high unemployment and unchecked immigration of groups of people who see the UK not as a place of opportunity to build a better life, as in the example of the United States, but as a soft touch, one in which they don't need to integrate into society, accept its norms and contribute.
At some point this clash of cultures will lead to a similar situation in the UK as what Spain suffers with ETA - bombings, kidnappings, extortion and the like - as unassimilated immigrant groups, particularly Muslims, demand their own 'home' state within UK.
In Germany the factors are a bit different.
The combination there includes a failing economy, though it's in better shape than the UK because Germany actually builds things whereas the UK staked its future on becoming a financial services economy, high immigration and, critically, the rise of the far left as a political force.
The German people have a much less tolerant attitude to nonsense in their own backyard than do the UK or France. You'll notice that 'youths' don't go around burning 100+ cars a night in Germany. There's a reason for that.
In fact, one of the reasons is that Germany's Muslim population comes from Turkey and not from Pakistan, as in the UK, or North Africa, as in France. The Turks come from a secular culture in which religion takes second place to the state.
However, that will not stop them from getting the blame for rising unemployment if the German economy hits the skids good and proper.
Fascism can only ever be implemented off the back of left wing governments for the quite logical reason that fascism is simply another form of socialism.
Die Linke (The Left) is the rising force in Germany. It is a fair way to the left of what currently exists in the Bundestag. To get an idea of its philosophy Die Linke's constituent groups comprise: the Anticapitalist Left, the Communist Platform, the Democrat Socialist Forum, the Emancipatory Left, the Reform Left Network, the Socialist Left and Marx21.
These are not groups for whom tolerance is a natural state of being and therefore it's likely that if Die Linke manages to win government in Germany things will descend into fascism in short order.
At this stage my money is on the UK but not by much.
Consider these factors:
Britain's Economy Faces Ruin
There can come a time in the life span of a government when it suddenly loses its authority.Break Down Of Security
From that moment it is finished - unable to shape events. Thereafter it becomes a matter merely of waiting until the end.
This happened to the John Major government as the 1997 general election approached.
It was also the melancholic fate of Jim Callaghan's administration as Britain drifted towards anarchy at the end of the 1970s. Similarly, Neville Chamberlain's administration lost the ability to cope in the late spring of 1940.
And so it happens that now there is only one question on the lips of many MPs: has Gordon Brown, too, entered the exit lounge?
The decline in Brown's authority shares the same fundamental cause that lay behind the fall of both Callaghan and Major: economic incompetence.
...Since then, however, Brown has reverted to partisanship. More important, it is now evident that the initial bail-out has failed and that Britain, for the first time since the Callaghan administration 30 years ago, faces the prospect of national bankruptcy.
This terrifying predicament highlights the lack of calibre in the country's economic management.
It is now clear that Brown and his Chancellor, Alistair Darling, have made a series of fundamental mistakes.
First, it emerged this week that their £37 billion bail-out of taxpayers' money last autumn was done without the necessary groundwork needed to check the health of the banks they were rescuing.
Staggeringly, Treasury officials do not appear to have inspected the banks' loan book before committing these astronomic sums of public money.
As a result, almost all the money invested in October has now almost entirely been lost because the value of the banks has reached rock bottom and meant that this
week fresh public money had to be made available which is also being poured down the drain.
...Twelve years ago, Gordon Brown inherited from the then Tory Chancellor, Kenneth Clarke, the most benign economic situation in living memory.
Since then, however, he has squandered it. At worst, we face national insolvency and Latin-American-style inflation. At best, our living standards will fall, our public services must be cut and Britain will decline to become a middle-ranking political power.
Yet Gordon Brown still seems unable to grasp the truth. Oblivious to the national financial disaster, he believes in ever more impossible levels of public spending.
Blind to the economic realities, he thinks that Britain is 'uniquely well-placed' to ride out the recession.
Eighty foreign killers are exploiting the chaotic asylum system to set up home in Britain, it was revealed yesterday.Employment Pressure
The convicted murderers from Albania have been given British passports despite being officially listed as 'wanted' by Interpol.
Most slipped across the Channel from Calais to Dover hidden in the back of lorries on ferries. They used bogus names and false papers to claim asylum, often pretending to be from the war-torn Balkan republic of Kosovo.
The scandal came to light when Albania's chief of police complained that 100 criminals from his country have been granted British citizenship and now live here.
The police chief said the criminals have been allowed to stay even though the Albanian government has informed the Home Office of the true identities of the men and their crimes, which also include rape and robbery.
Many of the convicted criminals have been living in the UK for up to ten years and have started new families here.
Ministers were criticised last night for issuing a record 151,635 work permits to foreigners as Britain slid into recession.Muslims Want Own Communities
The document lets non-EU workers take or keep jobs here, even though hundreds of thousands of Britons are losing theirs.
Unemployment rose by 290,000 in the same period, from December 1, 2007 to November 30, 2008, to reach 1.92m - the most since September 1997. Up to 2,500 workers a day are losing their jobs.
MPs said it made a mockery of Gordon Brown's promise in 2007 to deliver 'British jobs for British workers'.
The number of permits given to non-EU citizens is crucial to protecting British jobs as ministers have no control over the movement of EU nationals.
But rather than cutting the permits in 2008, the total increased. In 2007, when the economy was growing, 129,700 were approved. In 1997, the year Labour came to power, only 42,800 were handed out.
MUSLIMS want to create their own communities and remain segregated from British society.
A shocking 44% think they should be free to develop along separate lines.
But critics claim Muslims will create their own ghettos if they are left to their own devices.
The poll found religion has replaced race as the biggest equality issue, with six in 10 Brits thinking it is more divisive. Mass tension has grown following terror attacks from Muslim fanatics, including the 7/7 Tube bombings in 2005.
The war in Iraq has also added to divisions leaving many communities split.
But critics are fuming Muslims are refusing to fit into our way of life.
English Democrats’ chairman Robin Tilbrook said: “As far as I’m concerned, what we want to be about is having an integrated society.
“If people don’t want to integrate, they shouldn't be here.
“It’s not at all right to have what’s really a sort of ghetto situation developing – it’s going to lead to trouble.
“We can’t have a single society with lots of different rules.” Stephen Green, national director of Christian Voice, said: “I’m not surprised because there are already Muslim enclaves all over the country. They keep themselves to themselves anyway.”
The Equalities and Human Rights Commission poll found 67% of Muslims would not be happy for their child to marry someone of a different religion. But marrying someone from a different race bothers them less, with 61% content with the idea.
The shock results come a day after commission chairman Trevor Phillips said Britain was “by far” the least racist country in Europe.
Killing For Islam
Nearly one third of Muslim students believe it can be acceptable to kill in the name of religion, according to a survey published yesterday.
It also found that 40 per cent want to see the introduction of Islamic sharia law in Britain, 40 per cent think it wrong for Muslim men and women to mix freely together, and 33 per cent want to see a worldwide Islamic government based on sharia law.
The findings were described by researchers at the Centre for Social Cohesion think tank, which commissioned the poll, as 'deeply alarming'.
Now, if someone can convince me that the UK will navigate these problems without a significant increase in social disorder then I'd be happy indeed.
The Tories will win the next UK election. They will need to implement a Thatcheresque reform program to rebuild the economy that will be unpopular with an electorate used to living in the fantasy land of government handouts. This will give Labour the chance to regroup and win power after two terms.
That will be crunch time for the UK.