Sunday, 1 January 2012

Predictions for 2012

With Europe on the brink of financial collapse, the USA spending itself into perdition, China's manufacturing contracting and the rest of the emerging economies in various stages of expansion and contracting what can we look forward to in 2012?


Here are my predictions for 2012. Some are big, bold and brave and some are a bit obvious. We'll see how I go in a year's time.


Europe


The pressure on the banking system is now so great that it's hard to see how they can get through 2012 without some sort of financial ruction. The ECB has recently introduced a scheme in which it will lend money at around 2% to banks that are having trouble raising capital. At the same time as it has made 200 billion Euro available European banks have actually deposited 250 billion Euro with the ECB at a 0.5% rate. What does that tell you? That interbank lending is completely broken and they'd rather get near zero interest rates from the ECB than much higher rates by lending to other banks, which they don't trust. Part of the problem is that banks are not forced to mark assets to market so their balance sheets are completely false. If forced to mark to market a large number of banks would be insolvent.


Prediction 1: A number of large, well known European banks will go belly up in 2012. Their governments will engineer mergers with other banks in the same way that Lehman Bros was.


The infamous PIIGS are in even worse shape now than they were a year ago so the outlook for them is somewhat grim. Whether the technocrats that have been installed in Italy and Greece by the Euro elites can undo the rot remains to be seen. What is clear, though, is that there is a major attempt by European politicians to avoid the situation in which any country leaves, or can leave, the EU. Greece's problems are simply a matter of social and political corruption. People have come to expect an easy ride paid for by the government lavishing wages and entitlements on them that they have not earned. For its part the government has simply borrowed and borrowed - especially once it joined the EU and could borrow at the same rate as Germany - and paid off its constituents and cronies. There are no innocent parties in Greece in that regard. Spain is simply suffering from the excesses of democratic socialism taken to their logical conclusion. Government borrowing in order to pay for a plethora of social programs has really killed their economy. Youth unemployment is something like 50% and their housing market crash makes what happened in the US look like a walk in the park. Italy, on the other hand, can get its house back in order with some reasonably simple financial discipline. I was listening to John Mauldin a few weeks back and he highlighted that in France there are around 35,000 drivers (chauffeurs) for public officials in a population of 65 million. With a few million less people that number in Italy is 160,000 and that if they simply got rid of 75% of them then it would take care of 25% of their deficit. Which is pretty amazing when you think about it.


Prediction 2: No country will leave the EU in 2012.


USA


Given that it's an election year Mr Obama will pull out all stops to get re-elected including doing things that will boost his standing in the short term but hurt the United States subsequently. The Republican field of presidential contenders is probably up to the normal standard of years gone by but because we live in such difficult times people are looking for a strong Reagan-like figure and there simply isn't one there. It's odds on that Mitt Romney will take the nomination and enter what will be one of the most contentious, negative election races in US history.


The US Fed will respond to any quantitative easing by rolling out another round themselves in order to maintain an exchange rate of around 1.3 to the Euro. QE3 could happen in 2012 but it's not a prediction.


Prediction 3: In one of the closest races in US history Mr Obama will be elected to a second term.


The validity of the election result will be questionable given the Democrats' penchant for voter fraud and there may be grounds for appeal in certain electorates.


Prediction 4: Republicans won't have learned to correct the type of fraud that saw Al Franken steal his seat in Minnesota and we'll see repeats in 2012.


Prediction 5: The stock market will end 2012 up 20% so the Dow at around 14,500.


China


Chinese manufacturing is in a contraction at present due to demand for their products from Europe and the USA falling. Inflation, which has been a problem (and was exported to China from the US), is now coming under control so the government will need to look at ways of keeping their export machine going.


Prediction 6: The Chinese will re-peg the Yuan to the US dollar. This will increase their export competitiveness but will force the US to consider countermeasures in the form of quantitative easing and that will lead to an inflation problem again down the track.


Australia


Australia will continue to look like it's doing well while at the same time the foundational strength of our economy is stripped away by the most incompetent government in our history. Fair Work legislation will really bite in 2012, industrial disputes will hit a 10 year high, business investment will slow in the 2nd half due to the dual impacts of the insane Carbon Tax and Mining Tax, and the government debt will top $250B (a staggering number when you consider it was zero in 2007 and is due nearly 100% to ill-disciplined spending).  The Reserve Bank will be forced to reduce interest rates in order to keep our dollar from appreciating too much against those other countries that are in the process of money printing. In an environment of rising inflation that could spell trouble for the Australian economy in 2013. All of which makes the next prediction pretty simple.


Prediction 7: The next election will be called early, probably in the last quarter of the year.


Other Comments


With many governments increasingly unable to fund themselves they will turn to the only source of funds left that they can access - pension funds. This will be a disaster, of course, but I expect that governments will force pension funds to invest a percentage of their assets - say 25% - in government bonds. If this happens then make sure you have many, many assets to fund your retirement, as you won't be able to rely on your pension maintaining its purchasing power.


Precious metals will continue their volatility in 2012. Gold is heading up and now is a good time to be buying. The current drop in prices is a result of raising cash to meet margin calls and, while there might be some slight downside still to go, I expect gold to top $2000 by year's end. Silver is a bit more problematic but I think that there's at least 10% in it and maybe more so I'll call $35 and see how I go.


Hope everyone has a terrific 2012. Remember to focus on your health and happiness first, as without that you're nothing!


Update: Prediction 8: Nothing will change in Syria. Assad will not be forced out now or anytime soon.


Update 2: Prediction 9: There's a fair chance that if any other regime is going to fall in the Middle East this year then it'll be Iran.

42 comments:

Vic said...

With the economic chaos of 2012, I'd say 2013 just got that tougher to predict. Anyone thinking of making a strategic business investment be warned: be prepared to burn more brain cells.

Xj Cheng said...

However,what you should bethink is that the action of louis vuitton replica the backpack does not depend on the amount or the designer”it depends on what you use and how you use it.These types of bags,if acclimated properly,can accompany out your inner,a lot of hidden beauty.No amount how big-ticket a artist backpack is,it cannot accomplish this if it is not acclimated properly.Broad replica handbags and gucci replica broad artist aggressive handbags can be your best appearance accessory.However,to be able to acquisition the appropriate artefact you should buck in apperception a few things.They will accomplish your seek simpler and accomplish abiding the replica watch you buy is altogether inline with your needs.Firstly,one should authorize his charge as to why he wants to buy a watch.Ask yourself if you accept to abrasion it for your plan or do you wish one for accidental wear.This is what will advice you to focus your seek and save your time aswell as there are endless replica watches accessible and it gets actual harder to achieve on one if you do not apperceive as to replica watches why you charge one.Likewise,you should accept an abstraction about your budget.If it is bound you may accept to achieve for low end replica watches while if you can acquiesce to absorb some money,you can calmly buy a top superior replica watch.One can aswell attending for abatement offers in case he wants to save money.

Mike Wallis said...

kind of old now but i think your prediction did goes right on some points.keep writing.Cheap essay

create digital tickets said...

This gives a creative edge to the usually mundane ticket-buying experience. With vibrant colors and logo options available on your passes you can develop the brand image you desire. Even the most minor details can be edited with options to view your pass on your phone or send it to a guest for a demo. Using create digital tickets the power is within your hands.

Music Lessons howick said...

Forte School of Music is providing Music Lessons in Howick Auckland , New Zealand. Forte School is best in Music , Singing , Guitar and Piano Classes. Contact us now 09 534 2223

Badan Singh said...

adult bondage toys Shop discreetly for adult products and kinky toys at great prices.

Bryan Parker said...

“Are you arriving or leaving London and looking for a cheap London airport transfers company which offers an exclusive airport taxi hire service but at no extra cost”? Visit our website: Life Experience Degree

Bryan Parker said...

Good blogs, I think it is all about writing quality and all writing depends on quality .However I think in this friendly essay I found something great and it is similar to that provides essay writing service with quality. And I know this service is reader-friendly essay after getting this.
Life Experience Degrees

Joko Bodo said...

obat herbal untuk kutil di kemaluan
jual obat herbal untuk herpes
cara mengobati kutil kelamin
obat untuk kutil di dalam vagina
penyebab kutil kelamin
gejala kutil kelamin
tips mengobati kutil kelamin
jual obat herbal untuk kencing nanah
CARA TERBAIK MENGOBATI KUTIL DI KEMALUAN
Cara Alami Mempersempit Vagina Wanita
OBAT HERBAL UNTUK MENGOBATI KANKER SERVIKS SAMPAI TUNTAS
JUAL OBAT KEPUTIHAN HERBAL
JUAL OBAT WASIR HERBAL

dongdong said...

ralph lauren pas cher
fitflop uk
converse shoes
adidas superstars
canada goose sale
kate spade outlet
jordan pas cher
calvin klein underwear
coach outlet store online
ray bans
levis jeans
hermes uk
coach outlet
ray ban sunglasses
ray ban sunglasses
nike tn
fitflops sale
oakley sunglasses
nike store uk
fitflops shoes
burberry uk
sac longchamp pliage
michael kors outlet clearance
coach outlet online
michael kors outlet online
coach outlet
ray bans
chaussure louboutin
ray ban outlet
christian louboutin
rolex replica watches
ghd hair straighteners
true religion outlet
adidas shoes uk
true religion outlet
fitflops clearance
kate spade outlet
ray ban sunglasses outlet
bottega veneta
versace
20163.19wengdongdong

Greenwood Jonny said...

jual obat untuk penis yang ada kutilnya
jual obat untuk bintik bintik di sekitar penis
jual obat untuk bintik bintik di kepala penis
bagaimana cara mengobati kutil di kemaluan
obat kutil kelamin
obat kutil kelamin manjur
obat kutil kelamin salep dan kapsul
obat kutil dan herpes dari alam
obat kutil kelamin yang sudah terbukti manjur
obat kutil kelamin yang aman tanpa efek samping
obat kutil kelamin tanpa operasi
obat herbal untuk kutil kelamin
obat manjur untuk kutil kelamin
obat kutil kelamin yang aman tanpa efek samping
obat kutil kelamin tanpa operasi

Zhenhong Bao said...

pandora jewelry
burberry outlet online
michael kors outlet
jordan shoes 2015
ralph lauren shirts
juicy couture tracksuit
tiffany jewellery
kobe bryant shoes
true religion outlet
toms shoes
hermes belt
rolex watches for sale
true religion jeans
ray ban sunglasses
kate spade uk
nike blazer pas cher
nike huarache
true religion jeans
cartier sunglasses for men
lebron shoes
ray ban sunglasses
nike air max 90
beats by dr dre
longchamp pas cher
ray ban sunglasses
ray ban sunglasses sale
swarovski crystal
nike air huarache
michael kors uk
nike air force 1
ralph lauren polo
prada sunglasses
soccer jerseys wholesale
lebron shoes
ghd uk
20160531zhenhong

Badan Singh said...

live sex Best sex cams and live webcam porn chat with free webcam girls. Watch the best webcam sex and enjoy XXX adult sex shows from the comfort of your home.

Badan Singh said...

reallifecam izle The private life of other people. Live voyeur video 24/7 reallifecam - reallifecam247.com !

Depan Depan said...

casino online Thanks for sharing it agen casino

Hot Myra said...

I appreciate your analyses and data you shared.
Jaipur Escorts

hoxn Ln said...

storage inverse jump is Watches Replica a combination of perpetual calendar, exquisite watchmaking technology and the design work of UK Replica watches aesthetics.Military style has always been known for the French watch manufacturer handbag replica , watch BR03 Military Type Watchrecently released a black and green color for Replica Rolex Watches its popularity. On itsiconic square exterior profile, the designers with a matte Designer handbags traditional military blackceramic.

Blogger said...

Buy A .925 Silver Necklace Online.

Badan Singh said...

voyance-amour-eternel.com Today you can visit the voyance-amour-eternel.com website and discover the fantastic world of psychics and clairvoyants. The 0892 22 20 22 is your number of voyance par telephone which you can contact every days and nights to talk to a professional medium able to see your futur and to inform you about the questions you need to resolve.

Noor jaipur said...

MY prediction - Are you living in Jaipur or Jodhpur you will be staying here in a hotel, then our Jaipur call Girl Noor Lady already with you within the hour. Starting at 5K you can hire a lady.

Badan Singh said...

Virtual Reality Porn The latest preferred method for enjoying some porn seems to be the 360-degree videos offered. Virtual reality has made an emergence and now users who have Virtual Reality headsets can watch porn.

Badan Singh said...

mom tits Sickjunk.com is an award winning website that leads the world in videos for humanity at its worst. All videos & pictures on SickJunk.com are uploaded by users and are 100% amateur. SickJunk.com is updated everyday with the newest, most fucked up, videos and pictures possible. SickJunk.com also provides a link exchange for webmasters. This award winning website is a must see.

Badan Singh said...

escort service ibiza SPACE GIRLS IBIZA: The Space Girls Ibiza are not your typical escort agency! We only provide you with true GIRLS and REAL photos! Are your looking for a gorgeous woman who is keen to meet up with you in an unfamiliar city? This woman is not only gorgeous but she knows her way around this city really well! She will take you to the coolest and most attractive places! She is educated! You can talk to her about anything! She is interested in what you are saying and will join in the conversation! She carries herself with elegance and confidence! The people around you will notice this just as much as you! You will really make heads turn with this escort! Are you keen to find out more….!?! Then make an immediate booking request for a date with a true Space Girls Ibiza!

Badan Singh said...

Indian Escorts Dubai My name is Hina Sharma one among your most counseled details Indian Escorts in Dubai. Your actual crony for a wakeful night i'm a hot, superb and beautiful Independent Dubai. Escorts simply twenty one decades mature. I take an edge five legs five opposition. intensive nice with black extended locks, bright vision and superb smile that lightweight US your space and esteem your attention. You get known to own a end fun with ME as shortly as you've got a glance at ME. My fashioned measurements square measure 34-28-36. I actually have engaging legs and fashioned whole body. i'm a superb, stylish, attention-getting and attention-grabbing. Escort girl making certain you the best Independent Service, best Greek deity diversion and most applicable Escort Service in Dubai .

Badan Singh said...

porno izle En yeni porno, sikis, mobil porno ve turk porno videolarını sitemizde sinirsiz ve bedava izleyebilirsiniz.

raybanoutlet001 said...

cardinals jersey
instyler max
toms shoes
air jordan uk
michael kors outlet
michael kors outlet online
reebok outlet
falcons jersey
ralph lauren outlet
browns jerseys

raybanoutlet001 said...

packers jerseys
nike store uk
jordan shoes
nike free 5
longchamp
oakley sunglasses wholesale
nike huarache trainers
cheap michael kors handbags
gucci outlet
oklahoma city thunder jerseys

Obat Atasi Keputihan said...

Hopefully today's fun, very interesting article sekalali to read and may be useful for everything

Obat Atasi Luka Pasca Operasi
Obat Atasi Darah Rendah
Obat Infeksi Saluran Pernapasan Akut (ISPA)
Obat Susah Kencing (Buang Air Kecil)
Obat Ampuh Hilangkan Bopeng
Pengobatan Bisul Ampuh

Badan Singh said...

Top Porn Sites Best Porn Site List - This top porn site collection incorporates all the best adult website links and has collected only good porn site niches. Teds Porn List Sites and its FREE porn tube sites, adult premium multi-site, sex cams and world-known porn stars.

Badan Singh said...

telugu sex stories sex stories,Hindi sex stories,erotic stories,tamil sex stories,tamilsex, Marathi sex story, Bengali sex story, malyalam sex story, Punjabi sex story,love stories...

Badan Singh said...

voyance par telephone You can come for a free voyance par telephone on this french website of clairvoyance and fortune-telling. Divinatory arts exists since centuries, with astrology, numerology, tarot cards and more others. All these tools permit your fortune-teller to tell you what will be your future. You have some questions on love, work, money or projects ? Just contact the 0892 22 20 22 to have a quality voyance par telephone. You can visit and read voyance-amour-eternel.com to discover this magic world of paranormal and esoterism.

Badan Singh said...

Double Penetration If you want latest double penetration videos then visit our site. For all latest sexy porn videos this is a must see.

Badan Singh said...

porno movies Free Online XXX Videos, Sex Movies, Porn Videos

Badan Singh said...

download bokep Pusat download dan streaming bokep indonesia online, bokep pelajar, bokep tante, video xxx, skandal mesum, bokep abg dan jilbab.

Badan Singh said...

hookups Are you looking for hot women and sex girls online? Maybe a hot date in your city today? Or hot women pics for free? XXX Videos? Then our website is what you have been looking for, as you have arrived at the correct place for hot online webcams, xxx videos, hot topless and blonde and brunette naked girls, and / or sex dating in your own town or city! Hot legs, boobs, butt, vagina, and everhing! You will find all of that and a lot more at our website at www.SexyGirls.xyz Please come in (or cum in as some say) and have fun! Enjoy!

shengda xu said...

discount oakley sunglasses
adidas nmd runner
michael kors bags
adidas superstar trainers
christian louboutin uk
air max outlet
coach factory outlet
cheap nike shoes
air max
adidas ultra boost
xushengda0512

Badan Singh said...

download bokep indo Best Indonesian Homemade Sex videos

Badan Singh said...

telephone We welcome you on this french website of clairvoyance and esoterism, which is teaching you to practice the ancient art of divination. The futur can go through by many paths. We all have to make good decisions, but sometimes , it's hard to know what to do. To help you in this way, a free voyance telephone will allows you to speak to a true fortune-teller from Paris. Thanks to the horoscope, the tarots cards or the cristal ball, she will show you what you need to know about your destiny.

Anamika Sharma said...

Thanks for your post! I believe there are many who feel the same satisfaction as I read this article! I hope you will continue to have such articles to share with everyone!

Russian call girls in Gurgaon

Anamika Sharma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Blogger said...

eToro is the most recommended forex trading platform for beginner and pro traders.

Badan Singh said...

free android porn app Free Mobile Porn Videos! Watch The Best Sex Videos From Any Mobile Phone.